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Solar magnetic activity strongly influences the space weather
condition in heliosphere at different time scales: short-lived but high
energetic events such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections,
geomagnetic storms and the other, by modulating the overall heliospheric
magnetic and particulate flux output on decadal timescale. As space
weather studies have gradually gained impetus predicting the future
solar activity has become an important yet challenging scientific
objective.
A newly developed observational data-driven Surface flux Transport
(SFT) model which simulates the evolution of surface magnetic field, is
used for short-term predictions (days to month-scale) of the magnetic
field structures of solar corona. Physics-based long-term predictions of
solar magnetic activity can be achieved by utilizing solar dynamo models
with precise knowledge of the poloidal magnetic field at cycle minimum.
A dynamo model with timely assimilation of surface magnetic field maps
obtained from the data-driven SFT simulation enables us to not only
reproduce the observed solar magnetic activity of last century but also
to predict the forthcoming solar cycle 25 which will eventually regulate
the overall space weather conditions in the next decade. The SFT and
dynamo models are also utilized to study diverse fundamental
characteristics observed in solar magnetic activities.
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