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While not as infectious or deadly as some historical pandemics, the COVID19 disease is on its way to become one of the greatest challenges to humanity in the modern era. In India the number of affected individuals still continues to rise with multiple national lockdowns and regional containment measures implemented to stem the progression of the disease, with some partial success. While data analytics provide a way to constrain the observed past progression of the pandemic, epidemiological models provide insights on the underlying processes that govern the progression of the infection and a tool to assess possible future scenarios. In this talk, I shall present observationally determined constraints on the Indian coronavirus pandemic, describe the physical basis of epidemiological modelling, and provide insights and assessment on the progression of the disease based on a computational model -- that has been reasonably successful in describing the Indian context, thus far. I shall end with a discussion on the implications of our work for strategic planning at national, regional and
(academic) institutional levels. |